U.S. government bonds: 10-2-year yield spread 2023

The spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a negative value of -0.93 percent in July 2022.

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Monthly ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to July 2023

Characteristic	Yield spread
Jul-23	-0.93%
Jun-23	-0.89%
May-23	-0.56%
Apr-23	-0.56%
Mar-23	-0.64%
Feb-23	-0.78%
Jan-23	-0.68%
Dec-22	-0.67%
Nov-22	-0.61%
Oct-22	-0.4%
Sep-22	-0.34%
Aug-22	-0.35%
Jul-22	-0.14%
Jun-22	0.14%
May-22	0.28%
Apr-22	0.21%
Mar-22	0.22%
Feb-22	0.49%
Jan-22	0.78%
Dec-21	0.78%
Nov-21	1.05%
Oct-21	1.19%
Sep-21	1.13%
Aug-21	1.06%
Jul-21	1.1%
Jun-21	1.32%
May-21	1.47%
Apr-21	1.47%
Mar-21	1.46%
Feb-21	1.14%
Jan-21	0.95%
Dec-20	0.79%
Nov-20	0.7%
Oct-20	0.64%
Sep-20	0.55%
Aug-20	0.51%
Jul-20	0.47%
Jun-20	0.55%
May-20	0.5%
Apr-20	0.44%
Mar-20	0.42%
Feb-20	0.17%
Jan-20	0.24%
Dec-19	0.25%
Nov-19	0.2%
Oct-19	0.16%
Sep-19	0.05%
Aug-19	0.06%
Jul-19	0.22%
Jun-19	0.26%
May-19	0.19%
Apr-19	0.19%
Mar-19	0.16%
Feb-19	0.18%
Jan-19	0.17%
Dec-18	0.15%
Nov-18	0.26%
Oct-18	0.29%
Sep-18	0.23%
Aug-18	0.25%
Jul-18	0.28%
Jun-18	0.38%
May-18	0.47%
Apr-18	0.49%
Mar-18	0.56%
Feb-18	0.68%
Jan-18	0.55%
Dec-17	0.56%
Nov-17	0.65%
Oct-17	0.81%
Sep-17	0.82%
Aug-17	0.87%
Jul-17	0.95%
Jun-17	0.85%
May-17	1%
Apr-17	1.06%
Mar-17	1.17%
Feb-17	1.22%
Jan-17	1.22%
Dec-16	1.29%
Nov-16	1.16%
Oct-16	0.92%
Sep-16	0.86%
Aug-16	0.82%
Jul-16	0.83%
Jun-16	0.91%
May-16	0.99%
Apr-16	1.04%
Mar-16	1.01%
Feb-16	1.05%
Jan-16	1.19%
Dec-15	1.26%
Nov-15	1.38%
Oct-15	1.43%
Sep-15	1.46%
Aug-15	1.47%
Jul-15	1.65%
Jun-15	1.67%
May-15	1.59%
Apr-15	1.4%
Mar-15	1.4%
Feb-15	1.36%
Jan-15	1.33%
Dec-14	1.57%
Nov-14	1.8%
Oct-14	1.85%
Sep-14	1.96%
Aug-14	1.95%
Jul-14	2.03%
Jun-14	2.15%
May-14	2.17%
Apr-14	2.29%
Mar-14	2.32%
Feb-14	2.38%
Jan-14	2.47%
Dec-13	2.56%
Nov-13	2.42%
Oct-13	2.28%
Sep-13	2.41%
Aug-13	2.38%
Jul-13	2.24%
Jun-13	1.97%
May-13	1.68%
Apr-13	1.53%
Mar-13	1.7%
Feb-13	1.71%
Jan-13	1.64%
Dec-12	1.46%
Nov-12	1.38%
Oct-12	1.47%
Sep-12	1.46%
Aug-12	1.41%
Jul-12	1.28%
Jun-12	1.33%
May-12	1.51%
Apr-12	1.76%
Mar-12	1.83%
Feb-12	1.69%
Jan-12	1.73%
Dec-11	1.72%
Nov-11	1.76%
Oct-11	1.87%
Sep-11	1.77%
Aug-11	2.07%
Jul-11	2.59%
Jun-11	2.59%
May-11	2.61%
Apr-11	2.73%
Mar-11	2.71%
Feb-11	2.81%
Jan-11	2.78%
Dec-10	2.67%
Nov-10	2.31%
Oct-10	2.16%
Sep-10	2.17%
Aug-10	2.18%
Jul-10	2.39%
Jun-10	2.48%
May-10	2.59%
Apr-10	2.79%
Mar-10	2.77%
Feb-10	2.83%
Jan-10	2.8%
Dec-09	2.72%
Nov-09	2.6%
Oct-09	2.44%
Sep-09	2.44%
Aug-09	2.47%
Jul-09	2.54%
Jun-09	2.54%
May-09	2.36%
Apr-09	2%
Mar-09	1.89%
Feb-09	1.89%
Jan-09	1.71%
Dec-08	1.6%
Nov-08	2.32%
Oct-08	2.2%
Sep-08	1.61%
Aug-08	1.47%
Jul-08	1.44%
Jun-08	1.33%
May-08	1.43%
Apr-08	1.63%
Mar-08	1.89%
Feb-08	1.77%
Jan-08	1.26%
Dec-07	0.98%
Nov-07	0.81%
Oct-07	0.56%
Sep-07	0.51%
Aug-07	0.36%
Jul-07	0.18%
Jun-07	0.12%
May-07	-0.02%
Apr-07	0.02%
Mar-07	-0.01%
Feb-07	-0.13%
Jan-07	-0.12%
Dec-06	-0.11%
Nov-06	-0.14%
Oct-06	-0.07%
Sep-06	-0.05%
Aug-06	-0.02%
Jul-06	-0.03%
Jun-06	-0.01%
May-06	0.14%
Apr-06	0.1%
Mar-06	-0.01%
Feb-06	-0.1%
Jan-06	0.02%

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Release date

August 2023

More information

Region

Worldwide, United States

Survey time period

2006 to July 2023

Supplementary notes

Values are calculated using are the treasury constant maturity. Constant maturity is an adjustment for equivalent maturity used by the Federal Reserve Board to calculate an index based on the average yield of various Treasury securities maturing at different periods - in this case two and ten years.

Values not seasonally adjusted.

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