China: GHG emission projections by sector 2021-2050

The energy sector is the largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions in China, having surpassed 6.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GTCO₂e) in 2021. According to World Data Lab, emissions from this sector are projected to increase to nearly 7.1 GTCO₂e by 2050 under a "business-as-usual" scenario. In contrast, emissions from industry and agriculture would reduce during this time frame.

Projected greenhouse gas emissions in China under a "business-as-usual" scenario from 2021 to 2050, by sector (in million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)

Characteristic	Agriculture	Building	Energy	Industry	Transportation
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Release date

March 2023

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Region

China

Survey time period

2021

Supplementary notes

The numbers created under the “business-as-usual” scenario depict such a scenario without drastic deviations in technology advancement or policy-making from past episodes. While there is typically still some technological progress in the form of reducing emissions intensities (stemming e.g. from energy efficiency gains) that are partly a result of policy actions, this scenario does not take into account announced policy pledges or the like.

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