E-commerce retail sales CAGR 2024-2028, by country

According to recent industry calculations, the United States will rank first among 20 countries worldwide in retail e-commerce development between 2024 and 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.8 percent. The American e-commerce market is currently valued at 843 billion U.S. dollars. India and Mexico are also among the fastest-growing e-commerce markets globally, with a CAGRs of over 11 percent. The global retail e-commerce CAGR was estimated at 9.8 percent during the same period.

Will the United States be the global e-commerce leader?

By 2026, the American online retail market value is forecast to surpass the trillion U.S. dollar mark. Although the forecasted growth is unbeaten, the American e-commerce market is not the world's biggest. In fact, the Chinese e-commerce market surpassed a value of one trillion U.S. dollars back in 2021, and is forecast to breach two trillion U.S. dollars in 2028.

Different KPIs lead to different insights

The Chinese and American online shopping markets are neck-and-neck, depending on the KPI selected. For instance, the average revenue per user is a useful KPI to determine the penetration rate of e-commerce in a country. For the U.S., the ARPU stands at roughly 3,000 U.S. dollars as of 2024. In China, this value is much lower, at nearly 1,700 U.S. dollars.