Olan McEvoy
Research expert covering the European Union for society, economy, and politics.
Get in touch with us nowIn contrast, the three groups which currently form the 'grand coalition' in the European Parliament all are forecast to lose seats, with the European People's Party (EPP) losing 9 seats, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) losing 15 seats, and Renew Europe losing 16 seats. The Greens, however, are the group in the European Parliament which are set to take the biggest losses, with their predicted decline of 23 seats reflecting the increasing backlash from voters against environmental-friendly policies such as fuel taxes, housing regulations, and agricultural policies. Whether this right-wing backlash from voters results in a change in the staffing of Europe's top jobs will be decided after the election, when the parties must negotiate the election of the presidents of the European Council, European Commission, and European Parliament. Ursula von der Leyen, the current head of the European Commission, looks likely to retain her position post-election, as the EPP are forecast to be the largest group.
Issues in the 2024 elections: the cost of living crisis, war, migration, climate change
The 2024 European elections come at a time of several overlapping crises in Europe. While the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe ended during 2023, its shockwaves have continued to reverberate due to the increased poverty and social hardship it caused. Europe went through an acute inflationary episode in the wake of the pandemic which caused real wages to fall at their fastest rates in decades, meaning that low earners across Europe began to struggle to afford everyday necessities. On top of this came Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which resulted in EU countries boycotting energy imports from Russia and supplying huge amounts of military and financial aid to Ukraine. Voters have also felt the pressure on public services and housing markets due to increased migration flows from the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as other conflicts.These crises have converged into a 'perfect storm' which is serving to boost the fortunes of the far-right, who in many cases blame migrants, as well as the EU's support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia for the current issues faced by member states. There has also been increasing backlash towards the EU's climate agenda, which seeks to reduce emissions to 55 percent of their 1990 level by the year 2030. Rural voters and farmers are particularly incensed by plans to increase fuel duty on motor vehicles and to structure subsidies for agriculture to promote the green transition. While these issues have been capitalized on by the right and far-right, and are likely to cause losses for the current largest parties in parliament (EPP, S&D, Renew Europe), there is also room for the left to galvanize support for its policies focused on poverty and social exclusion, with the left group in the European Parliament forecast to gain four seats.
How would a shift to the right in the European elections affect EU policy?
The rise of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group and the Identity & Democracy group in the European Parliament poses a challenge to the current status quo of the EU. These groups are comprised of eurosceptic parties, whether they are hard eurosceptics who want their country to leave the EU outright, or soft eurosceptics who are opposed to European integration in its current form, but do not want to leave the EU. This is the fundamental dividing line between the groups in the European Parliament, as all of the mainstream centrist and left-wing parties - the EPP, S&D, Renew Europe, and the Greens - are overwhelmingly pro-EU groups, while the smaller Left Group is divided between eurosceptic and pro-EU member parties. If forecasts turn out to be correct and the right-wing groups will have made huge gains in these elections, it may change the future course of EU policy.Likely outcomes of a rightward shift in the policies of the EU could include restrictions on migration and the free movement of people, less support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, a slowing down of the process of EU enlargement, and a reduction of the EU's ambitious climate commitments. These shifts are unlikely to come about from a representative of the right-wing groups taking one of the EU's top jobs - the presidents of the commission, the parliament, or the council, nor the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy - but are instead likely to result from the other groups in the parliament moving closer to the positions of the ECR and I&D. While the right's success in this years European elections could mark a turning point in the development of the EU, ultimately their ability to influence European policy will depend on the outcome of upcoming national elections, with right wing parties being increasingly popular in Germany and France, while the right have recently come first in elections in the Netherlands and Italy.
